Why Lockdowns Are Futile and Face Masks Effective in Slowing Down COVID-19-Like Pandemic - Quantitative Analysis with Compartmental Model

H. Kuzdraa, J.M. Wysokińska-Miszczukb, K.I. Wysokińskic, M.M. Wysokińskid aUniversity of Toronto, 27 King's College Circle Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A1 Canada bThe Chair and Department of Periodontology, Medical University of Lublin, Chodźki 6, 20-093 Lublin, Poland cInstitute of Physics, M. Curie-Skłodowska University, pl. M. Curie-Skłodowskiej 1, 20-031 Lublin, Poland dInternational Research Centre MagTop, Institute of Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, al. Lotników 32/46, PL-02668 Warsaw, Poland

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There exist a number of complex and often nonlinear phenomena in physical and biophysical systems that can be efficiently approached by systems of differential equations. Even though the deterministic character of the solutions is typically not adequate to describe the actual behaviour of given systems, this approach is very well suited to describe the influence of the well-defined factors on the evolution of the systems described by properly chosen dynamical models. For example, a compartmental model with three groups of people (susceptible, infected, and recovered) is able to capture some of the general principles related to the dynamics of a pandemic in a biophysical system such as the human population. Here, motivated by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, with the help of a proper generalisation of the simple model, we analyse influence and efficacy of commonly invoked counter-pandemic actions - lockdowns and mandatory face masks - in reducing the number of fatalities. To reach this goal, our model takes into account the number of hospitalised persons and the fraction of those hospitalised who need special treatment in intensive care units. We show that even if there is an optimal time for introduced lockdowns to be effective, it is impossible to reach in practice due to the limited capacity of the health system. The calculations indicate that wearing face masks decreases the number of hospitalised people and the total death toll. Half of the population appropriately wearing masks, even the home-made ones (with an efficacy of only about 60%), would halve the peak value of those needing intensive medical treatment. Our study indicates a slightly greater effectiveness of masks worn by healthy people, which is related to the fact that ill people do not protect themselves.

DOI:10.12693/APhysPolA.141.613 topics: COVID-19, lockdown, face masks, SIR-like model