Current Log-Periodic View on Future World Market Development

S. Drożdż a, b, J. Kwapień a, P. Oświęcimka a and J. Speth a, c a Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Radzikowskiego 152, PL-31-342 Kraków, Poland b Institute of Physics, University of Rzeszów, PL-35-310 Rzeszów, Poland c Institut fűr Kernphysik, Forschungszentrum Jűlich, D-52425 Jűlich, Germany

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Received: 22 11 2007;

Applicability of the concept of financial log-periodicity is discussed and encouragingly verified for various phases of the world stock markets development in the period 2000-2010. In particular, a speculative forecasting scenario designed in the end of 2004, that properly predicted the world stock market increases in 2007, is updated by setting some more precise constraints on the time of duration of the present long-term equity market bullish phase. A termination of this phase is evaluated to occur in around November 2009. In particular, on the way towards this dead-line, a Spring-Summer 2008 increase is expected. On the precious metals market a forthcoming critical time signal is detected at the turn of March/April 2008 which marks a tendency for at least a serious correction to begin.

DOI: 10.12693/APhysPolA.114.539 PACS numbers: 05.45.Pq, 52.35.Mw, 47.20.Ky